Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.015394 0.017463 0.019714 0.022347 0.025343 0.028647 0.032573
2025-03-23 0.012385 0.015283 0.018716 0.023089 0.028521 0.035057 0.043539
2025-03-30 0.010141 0.013243 0.017135 0.022386 0.029309 0.038149 0.050340
2025-04-06 0.008716 0.011919 0.016129 0.022086 0.030331 0.041387 0.057418
2025-04-13 0.007454 0.010603 0.014912 0.021263 0.030430 0.043251 0.062668
2025-04-20 0.006910 0.010188 0.014839 0.021953 0.032623 0.048134 0.072580
2025-04-27 0.006417 0.009774 0.014699 0.022490 0.034593 0.052820 0.082617
2025-05-04 0.006032 0.009469 0.014667 0.023155 0.036778 0.057979 0.093846
2025-05-11 0.005501 0.008878 0.014131 0.022961 0.037565 0.060996 0.101910
2025-05-18 0.005086 0.008426 0.013762 0.022979 0.038666 0.064570 0.111185
2025-05-25 0.004653 0.007899 0.013217 0.022642 0.039119 0.067076 0.118837
2025-06-01 0.004391 0.007633 0.013074 0.022961 0.040700 0.071607 0.130434
2025-06-08 0.004043 0.007194 0.012610 0.022697 0.041269 0.074486 0.139474
2025-06-15 0.003879 0.007067 0.012678 0.023390 0.043631 0.080800 0.155566
2025-06-22 0.003524 0.006558 0.012018 0.022681 0.043314 0.082133 0.162237
2025-06-29 0.003263 0.006200 0.011598 0.022376 0.043721 0.084841 0.171836
2025-07-06 0.002959 0.005733 0.010936 0.021542 0.043011 0.085305 0.176920
2025-07-13 0.002872 0.005679 0.011051 0.022241 0.045410 0.092121 0.195812
2025-07-20 0.002773 0.005589 0.011089 0.022786 0.047539 0.098570 0.214570
2025-07-27 0.002693 0.005533 0.011188 0.023460 0.049992 0.105905 0.235994
2025-08-03 0.002530 0.005289 0.010886 0.023263 0.050565 0.109296 0.248960
2025-08-10 0.002400 0.005106 0.010693 0.023282 0.051605 0.113780 0.264863
2025-08-17 0.002247 0.004861 0.010349 0.022940 0.051808 0.116425 0.276728